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Throughout the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Hungary's prime minister stood out as the sole EU chief to back Donald Trump. This backing came as no shock, in light of the Hungarian leader's championing of divisive theories including population replacement concept and his crackdowns on media freedom. Observers have noted that Hungary's premier essentially wrote the playbook for the Make America Great Again campaign, with ex-Trump adviser Steve Bannon hailing Orbán as a precursor to Trump.

Electoral Support Ahead of the Hungarian Vote

In recent days, with crucial Hungarian elections just approaching in six months, the US president returned some political favors. With Orbán pursues a fifth straight win leading a nation he labels an illiberal democracy, his political group is behind in surveys. A meeting to Washington resulted in not just a few signed Maga baseball caps; it brought highly beneficial pre-election gifts.

Energy Exemptions and Fiscal Safeguards

Even though earlier lecturing European states on the necessity to eliminate all resource supplies from Russia, and threatening restrictions against nations still to buy Russian oil, Mr Trump agreed to allow a unique waiver for Hungary – the biggest user in the EU of Russian oil. As Orbán stated, the US government also agreed to offer a economic protection to the Hungarian authorities if it faces any upcoming challenges, especially as Brussels continues to withhold large sums from the EU to the nation because of violations of legal standards.

The details of this arrangement are unclear. Yet Donald Trump recently demonstrated his inclination to help out political friends when the America extended a $20bn emergency credit line to the Argentine leader, the South American leader. Although Orbán did not secure a campaign-energising Trump visit to Budapest, the Oval Office meeting nonetheless turned out to be a productive session.

European Apprehensions and Geopolitical Stakes

Within EU circles, Mr Trump’s intervention likely highlighted the international consequences of the coming election, before which the centrist challenger, Magyar, holds a comfortable lead in surveys. European leaders are accustomed not to expect reliable policies from the US government, and have grown used to the American leader's efforts to belittle the EU. But the waiver for Hungary – which came at the price of an agreement to buy American energy resources – blatantly weakens the bloc's aims to end Russian oil and gas by the target date.

• Since 2022, the two biggest EU importers of Russian crude, these two countries, have provided well over £10bn to the Moscow's war operations.
• At the same time, Budapest has often employed the blocking vote to hinder advancement in negotiations for Ukraine's EU membership.
• While Europe works to develop a cohesive plan for aiding the Ukrainian government, and strengthening its hand in any upcoming peace talks, the Hungarian leader's alignment with Moscow at the negotiating table remains a significant obstacle.

Rival's Approach

Mr Magyar has avoided vowing a significant change on the war in Ukraine, and focused his campaigning on domestic issues, while stressing the necessity for Hungary to finally behave as a positive member state. Following repeated disruptions, EU officials can only remain patient. Orbán's disregard to fundamental European principles, such as the protection of minority groups and the autonomy of civic groups, has persisted as a source of shame for the EU. His continued obstructionism on Ukraine threatens to weaken its future security.