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As global leaders convene in the Brazilian Amazon for the 30th UN Climate Change Conference, it is crucial to review how we are faring together in lowering worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases.

In spite of three decades of United Nations climate conferences, approximately half of the carbon dioxide accumulated in the atmosphere after the dawn of industrialization has been emitted after the year 1990. Coincidentally, 1990 marked the release of the First Assessment Report by the IPCC, which verified the danger of human-caused global warming. While researchers prepare the upcoming IPCC report, they do so aware that scientific findings remains eclipsed by political influences. Regardless of sincere attempts, the world is still far from the path to prevent catastrophic climate change.

Record-Breaking CO₂ Levels and Fossil Fuel Dependency

Latest figures show that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels reached a new peak of 423.9 ppm in the year 2024, with the growth rate from 2023 to 2024 jumping by the biggest annual rise since modern measurements began in 1957. According to the international carbon monitoring initiative, 90% of total global CO₂ emissions in 2024 came from burning fossil fuels, while the remaining 10% resulted from alterations in land use such as forest clearance and wildfires.

While the increase in carbon emissions from fuels in 2024 was driven by increased use of gas and oil—accounting for over half of global emissions—the use of coal also reached a record high, constituting forty-one percent. In spite of the previous climate summit's evaluation calling for nations to transition away from fossil fuels, global strategies still aim to extract over twice the quantity of fossil fuels in the year 2030 than aligns with keeping global warming to 1.5C, with ongoing drilling of gas justified as a less polluting bridge fuel.

The Illusion of Eco-Friendly Measures

Instead of focusing on financial motivators to accelerate the elimination of carbon fuels, climate policies are heavily reliant on feel-good eco-positive solutions that seek to cancel out carbon emissions by afforestation rather than reducing industrial emissions. While protecting, enlarging, and rehabilitating natural carbon sinks like forests and wetlands is beneficial in itself, studies has shown that there is insufficient territory to achieve the global goal of carbon neutrality using ecological methods by themselves.

Approximately 1 billion hectares—a territory bigger than the USA—is required to fulfill carbon neutrality commitments. More than 40% of this area would need to be converted from existing uses like agriculture to carbon sequestration projects by the year 2060 at an never-before-seen pace.

Although this regenerative utopia could be realized, forests take time to mature and are susceptible to fires, so they cannot be considered as a quick or lasting CO2 retention method, particularly in a fast-changing climate. As severe temperatures and dryness engulf larger regions, these sincere attempts could literally go up in smoke.

The Diminishing of Natural Carbon Sinks

Scientific evidence tells us that about half of the carbon dioxide released each year remains in the atmosphere, while the remainder is taken up by seas and terrestrial systems. As the planet warms, these natural carbon sinks are losing efficiency at soaking up CO₂, meaning that more carbon accumulates in the atmosphere, further exacerbating global warming. Shifting the mitigation burden onto the land sector effectively excuses the fossil fuel industry from the pressure to cut pollution any time soon.

The Climate Liability and Coming Populations

Achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century requires CO2 extraction (CDR), which at present relies almost exclusively on land-based measures to absorb surplus CO2 from the air. Polluters can easily buy carbon credits to counterbalance their discharges and continue with business as usual. At the same time, the planetary heat imbalance resulting from the burning of fossil fuels continues to further destabilise the Earth’s climate. Essentially, we are adding more carbon debt to our planetary credit card, passing on our descendants with an unpayable liability.

To curb the scale and duration of overshoot the global warming targets, the world ultimately needs to go well beyond the neutralising effect of carbon neutrality and begin to drawdown cumulative historical emissions to reach a carbon-negative state.

The Political Distortion of Net Zero

According to the most recent data from the Global Carbon Project, plant-based carbon removal is currently capturing the equivalent of about five percent of annual fossil carbon dioxide emissions, while engineered carbon extraction represents only about a tiny fraction of the CO2 emitted from fossil fuels. Optimistic sector projections place it at around zero point one percent of total global emissions. Without meaning to be controversial, the policy twisting of net zero is an insidious loophole that distracts from the research-based necessity to eradicate the main source of our warming world—carbon-based energy.

The Critical Requirement for Definite Steps

Although this scientific reality should dominate talks at Cop30, history indicates that polite incrementalism and political kowtowing will win out. Ambiguous promises of future ambition will continue to delay the urgent need for concrete immediate action. Unless leaders are brave enough to implement carbon pricing to terminate the age of hydrocarbons, we are adding increasing amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere, compounding the environmental disaster currently happening across the globe.

The dilemma we confront is simple: take real action to the scientific reality of our predicament or endure the results of this profound moral failure for centuries to come.