Why Middle Eastern Investment Hasn't Turned Newcastle into Championship Contenders
Eddie Howe is not prone to dramatics or sweeping public pronouncements. So by his standards, his media briefing following Sunday’s loss to West Ham qualifies as a angry tirade. Newcastle scored first but West Ham took the lead by half-time, as well as hitting the post and having a penalty revoked by VAR, leading Howe to execute a triple change at the half-time.
“The opening period was particularly irritating,” the coach stated. “Virtually any player could have been substituted and I believe that was a reflection of where we were at that stage in the game and it's extremely uncommon for me to feel that way. In fact, I don’t think having done so since I’ve been head coach of the club, so I felt the squad needed a significant change at half-time. That’s why I did those decisions.”
Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade and Emil Krafth were substituted at half-time and the team did stabilise somewhat in the latter period, without ever appearing like they might fight back into the contest against a side that had secured just a single victory of their previous nine fixtures. Given the congestion the centre of the standings currently is, with a mere three-point gap separating third from 11th, and a nine-point margin between the upper and lower ranks, a run of 12 points from 10 games has not placed the Magpies adrift but, similarly, they cannot end the campaign in 13th.
The Problem of Perception
The challenge partially is one of public view. With the Saudi PIF, the club possess the wealthiest backers in the world. The assumption when the PIF bought 80% of the club in recent years was that it would bring a game-changing impact, as Roman Abramovich achieved at Stamford Bridge or the City Group did at the Etihad. The difference is that both of those owners took over before the advent of FFP rules (and the ongoing allegations against Manchester City relate to whether they violated those regulations after they were in place).
Profit and sustainability restrictions restrict the ability of proprietors, however rich, to invest funds on their teams and so in that sense probably might have hindered any Saudi effort to elevate Newcastle to the level of Manchester City. But it wasn't necessary for Newcastle’s expenditure to have been so restrained as it has; they might have spent more and stayed inside the threshold – or just accepted a relatively meagre European fine since their major problem is more with the European than the domestic regulation.
Infrastructure Investment and Financial Rules
Besides which, infrastructure spending is excluded from PSR calculations; the simplest way to raise income to generate additional financial flexibility would be to expand or renovate the arena. Considering the site of the home ground, with listed buildings on two sides, practically that probably means building an completely new stadium. Rumors circulated in spring of possibly making the nearby relocation to a local park – opposition from local groups could surely have been surmounted with a promise to build a replacement green space on the current ground location – but there has not been any progress on that plan. There has occurred substantial retrenchment from the PIF on a variety of initiatives as it refocuses on domestic affairs; the attitude to Newcastle seems completely in alignment with that change of approach.
The Alexander Isak Saga
The Alexander Isak saga was born of that tension. A more confident management might have framed his sale as necessary to free up funds for additional investment; rather there was a vain attempt to retain him. That meant the team began the season amid a feeling of disappointment despite the acquisitions of several new players. The start was mixed: one win in their initial six fixtures.
But it seemed a corner had been turned. They secured five victories in six matches prior to the weekend, a run that included demolitions of a Belgian side and Benfica in the European competition. That’s why the performance against West Ham was so surprising. The problem maybe is that the team's style is extremely intense, high-energy; a slight drop-off in energy can have profound consequences. Perhaps the strain of Premier League, European and Carabao Cup matches, five games in a fortnight, had got to them. The German forward started all five games and appeared particularly weary.
The Nature of Modern Soccer
This is the nature of modern football. Coaches must be prepared to make changes. The manager has been unlucky that Wissa’s injury has meant he is lacking attacking options but, no matter how reasonable the explanations, Sunday’s showing was inexcusable –particularly following taking the lead at a ground ready to criticize its own side.
Howe will hope it was merely a temporary setback, an off-day when all players is off-colour simultaneously, but if Newcastle are to qualify for the Champions League in the future, let alone eventually launch an genuine title challenge, they must not be as unreliable as they have been.