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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a Test.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, they beat them again. Another three years passed, same story. Another five-year gap and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, their chicanery, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where the optimism that some may have held for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests recently, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.